Enviado por José Antonio Sierra
SPAIN TODAY
By Lenox Napier
Business Over Tapas
A digest of this week's Spanish financial, political
and social news aimed primarily at Foreign Property Owners:
with Lenox Napier and Andrew Brociner
email: businessovertapas@gmail.com
Note: Underlined words or phrases are
links to the Internet. Right click and press 'Control' on your keyboard to
access.
Business over Tapas and its writers are not responsible for unauthorised
copying or other improper use of this material.
4 February 2016 Nº 146
Editorial:
One of the most
complicated election processes ever must
be the one that is occurring in Spain, which began on December 20th. Four
parties won well enough that, separately or together, they could stop any
government they didn’t like or that they didn’t dominate from being declared,
yet no one party had enough support to form a stable government. Pedro Sánchez
PSOE, with 90 out of a possible 350, has now been asked by Felipe VI to try and
form a government. But with who?
And so they must
disagree – as there is nothing in common with any of the four parties, and thus
– any coalition would probably mean the disappearance in the short term of – at
least – the smaller of those involved. In Spain, we have two parties renowned
for their corruption, two old traditional parties and two brand new ones, two
parties on the right, two parties on the left and at least one party in perhaps
terminal internal revolution. The only mathematic solution, PP and PSOE, is a hard
nut to crack.
A fresh election –
the only apparent solution – would likely bring similar results: a similar
problem.
It’s too late now
to adopt the Two-Round System (Wiki) – used by the
French and many other nations. The first time, you vote for who you like
(tactical voting not necessary!). The second round is then held between the two
leading parties.
So Spain must find
another solution. Perhaps a ‘Royal’ compromise with an outside candidate for a
short-term legislature? Maybe a coalition forged out of new/fresh party leaders?
(El Mundo editorial here).
Alternatively, how about a government of
National Unity (Wiki)? But
first, Sánchez must have his chance to
either go ‘right’ with the PP and maybe Ciudadanos... or ‘left’ with
Podemos and IU.
In short, it’s a
mess.
…...
Housing:
A
useful article called ‘How to rent your Spanish property’ over at A Place in the Sun, begins with ‘Many
people considering buying a second home in Spain do so with an eye to renting
it out when it’s not being used by the family. This can be a good way to make
sure the property pays for itself but, before you leap onto the rental market,
you should look at what the law says...’.
According
to 20 Minutos, Andalucía has now
drafted new rules about short-term rentals, and all current city ‘tourist
rental dwellings’ must be registered with the ‘Registro de Turismo de Andalucía’
to control ‘unfair competition’, quality and so on. Landlords are expected to
keep up with a daily register of clients to ‘guarantee public security’.
Following on from
a point in BoT’s editorial last
week, Mark Stücklin’s Spanish Property
Insight reports that – ‘Catalan
architects warn that a rise in building activity is not what it seems ... On
the face of it, a big increase in new home building looks like good news for
the industry and economy. Housing starts are on the up, and the surface area
being built increased by 26% last year, having increased the year before by
7.5%. But most of the increase comes from big projects of more than 10,000 sqm,
which were planned in the boom years and put on ice during the crisis, explains
Oscar Muñoz writing
in the Catalonian La Vanguardia. And
most of the new building activity last year was concentrated in the first six
months of the year, and fell off sharply in the second half of the year...’.
‘How a dream of
building an eco house turned into a 13-year nightmare of bureaucracy, bad
weather and dead fish’. The
amusing story of a home fraught with un-expected problems (well, paper-work
obviously) in the heart of Andalucía
– from the Financial Times.
News
from Cantoria, Almería: Six
British-owned houses have suddenly had their electricity cut by the power
company since the houses, for the past four years, have been paying electricity
for an illegal line, connected, apparently, by the disgraced mayor Pedro Llamas
who claims that 'the homes were connected originally for humanitarian reasons'...
El Mundo introduces readers to La Zagaleta, ‘the most expensive refuge in Europe’. Read the
hyperbole about this exclusive urbanisation located in Benhavís, near Marbella.
Better yet, here is the ‘La Zagaleta
Country Club’ prospectus, in English.
‘Q:
I know you have mentioned some good countries for those interested in buying
abroad; do you have some information about Spain as a possible location?
A:
Spain is, by all accounts, a great real estate value right now. The country’s
real estate markets were hit hard by the 2008 crash, and distressed British
property owners in particular have been selling into a soft market. My
reservation is that Spain has just enacted its own version of FATCA — much
harsher that the U.S. law, in fact, in terms of reporting requirements and
penalties. “Modelo 720” forces Spanish taxpayers to report foreign assets every
year via a certified tax adviser or accountant. The imposition of this decree
in late 2012 has resulted in many expats, Brits in particular, reducing their
stays in Spain to less than six months so as to avoid fiscal residency, which
triggers the reporting requirement.
Modelo 720 has
also discouraged prospective buyers, contributing to Spain’s soft real estate
market. The program is so harsh that the European Union Commission is
investigating whether it violates EU legal norms. The EU Commission has given
Spain two months to justify the process, or the country will be taken to the
European Court of Justice, where it could face severe fines. The response is
currently complicated by the fact that the country is in political turmoil
following an indecisive election in December’.
From an American newsletter
called Sovereign Confidential.
Perpe has a graphic of house prices in Spain since 1970 here.
The Government is
auctioning off the castle where Queen Isabel la Católica lived in the 15th
century. The Castillo de Maqueda, in Toledo, starts at 9.5 million euros. Story
here.
…...
Tourism:
68.1 million foreign
tourists visited Spain in 2015, says Agent
Travel here.
At 4.9% up over 2014, this is a Spanish record. The UK provided 15.6 million;
France 11.5m; Germany 10.2m. The sharpest
rise was made by visitors from the USA at 1.5m, a rise of 23.6%. The
largest fall comes from Russia, with
under a million visitors, a drop of 32.7% over 2014.
There were more
than eleven million hotel overnight stays in Benidorm in 2015, according
to El País in English. However, it
adds, Benidorm is only in fourth place nationally, with ‘...Barcelona (18.4
million) at the top of the list, followed by Madrid (17.8 million) and San
Bartolomé de Tirajana in Gran Canaria...’ in third.
‘The largest city
in the Balearic Islands will go back to its old name following a decision in
the most recent local council meeting. Officially, the regional capital is
known as Palma de Mallorca, but the coalition council – made up of the socialists,
Podemos and left-wing independents MÉS Mallorca – pledged before the elections
that they would change it back to simply 'Palma', as it was previously known. The
name was changed to 'Palma de Mallorca' by the former PP-led regional
government of the Balearics, sparking heavy criticism by the city council...’. From
Think Spain.
…...
Finance:
El País reports
that unemployment fell in late 2015 by the creation of a massive 678,200 jobs
over 2014. This leaves Spain with 20.9% unemployment. However, says
El Mundo, some of these were
seasonal Christmas jobs, as unemployment rose
in January by 57,247 persons.
Ideal reports
that Almería unemployment also fell 43,300 people in 2015, leaving the province
with a still far-from-satisfactory 25.13% unemployed. Cádiz remains the worst
across Andalucía with an appalling 36.73% unemployed.
An analysis
over at Público shows that, despite
the triumphalism of the Rajoy Government, the situation of the labour market
has gone from bad to worse between 2011 and 2015.
Then, we have the
self-employed, los autónomos. Their parlous situation is analysed by Los Replicantes here.
‘Plunging shares,
shrinking profits, and a spate of new regulations and court cases that could
end up setting it back billions of euros – that’s what the Spanish banking
sector is facing. But now, banks are also grappling with the complete absence
of a friendly central government to insulate them from the cruel vagaries of
the global economic downturn.
And the strain is
beginning to show...’. Wolf Street reports
(and goes after the vulture funds).
…...
Politics:
On Tuesday, Pedro
Sánchez was offered the chance to form a government by the King. Sánchez says
it will take him a month or so to put a coalition (or some lesser agreement)
together before he calls for a plenary session. He began his meetings with the
other groups on Wednesday. Here’s the ABC’s
report.
Here The Guardian says
‘King Felipe calls on Pedro Sánchez, who says he wants to form a progressive
government for change’. The news-site El
Diario says
‘Pedro Sánchez finds with IU and Compromís (two small parties) an understanding
not so far found with Podemos’.
Felipe Gonzalez
has advised
the PSOE not to have anything to do with Podemos. The leader of Podemos, Pablo
Iglesias, laments
that Gonzalez should ‘ally himself with the PP’. And so it goes on... It is no
secret that Susana Díaz doesn’t agree with her captain, Pedro Sánchez, but now a
recording of a private session between Susana and some of the other PSOE
‘Barons’ shows how deep the divide is. Indeed, she is considering pulling
her PSOE deputies (she has 22) out of any concord with Podemos. Sánchez
clearly prefers an alliance with Podemos, and suggests that any agreement should
pass by all the militants in the PSOE before he signs anything... Meanwhile,
the leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, who
said ‘he who can’t clean his own house certainly can’t clean Spain’ – a dig
at Mariano Rajoy – is now attempting
new approaches to both the PP and the PSOE. The PP insists that it won’t
support any other candidate other than its own and is now preparing for
fresh elections – which, according to El
Huff Post, would be held perhaps as
late as the end of June, and if you want the opinion of Pedro J Ramírez
from El Español: ‘vamos a nuevas elecciones’.
Carles Mulet, a
senator for Compromis, says
that the State Prosecutor should declare the Partido Popular to be a ‘criminal
organisation’ and should proceed with its dissolution.
Andrés Hertzog,
the presidential candidate for the UPyD in the December elections, has announced
that he is without work, and has registered for unemployment benefits.
According to Pablo
Iglesias, El País is making every
effort to steer Spanish opinion towards a coalition with the Right while
evidently anti-Podemos in its editorials. Vozpópuli
reports.
A number of laws
passed in the last Parliament are now being
studied by the current House to see which and what recent laws can be
repealed. These would include the unpopular education law the LOMCE, the
Citizens Security Law (‘Ley Mordaza’)
and the Labour Reform law. The President of the Congress of Deputies, Patxi
López, has agreed that ordinary activities and plenary sessions will be held in
the Cortes Generales (Lower House).
…...
Corruption (wouldn’t it be nice to end this section?):
‘The corrupt one seduces provincial society by feeding a nephew, by placing a child with problems in a nice
job, through fixing the boiler in this man’s house, and by subsidizing the local
football team and singing, the while, at the karaoke’. In short, they bring
light and cheer to their surroundings, says an
article by David Trueba in El Ventano called ‘The Seductive Sparkle
of Corruption’.
The Local introduces ‘Ten
Spain corruption scandals that will take your breath away’ here.
The judge accuses
all of the Counsellors of the PP in
the Valencia Town Hall for sanitising the accounts of ex-mayoress and current
senator Rita Barberá.
Rita Barberá’s sister Asunción appears to have had a hand in the
goings-on and money-laundering in the PP offices in Valencia. She is reported
in El Mundo as saying to some confidants ‘We overdid things, many of us,
we overdid it’. Now the Valencian branch of the PP is under investigation in
the Operación Taula (A number of articles from El Mundo here). Rita herself could only be
tried by the Supreme Court as she has immunity.
El Español reveals
that the PP in Madrid was financed in a similar way to the organisation in
Valencia – with a number of employees from the party headquarters going to a
nearby bank on a regular basis and paying
small cash ‘donations’ to the party account, thus helping ‘wash’ large
sums held by the party, received from important donors.
A helpful list of the PP accused to date in 2016 here.
From
The Local: ‘Rodrigo Rato, a former
chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is to stand trial for misusing
funds when he was head of a bailed-out Spanish bank, a court in Madrid said on
Monday. Rato is one of 66 accused in a scandal that allegedly saw executives
and board members at Caja Madrid and Bankia - the group whose near-collapse
sparked an EU bailout of Spain's financial sector - spend around €12 million on
themselves between 2003 and 2012...’. El
Mundo notes
that the bankster who was twice imprisoned (briefly) last year for bank fraud,
Miguel Blesa, ex-director of the Caja Madrid, is also part of the accused (Readers
may recall that the judge was
fired for his impertinence).
‘The trial of
Spain's Princess Cristina on charges of tax fraud must go ahead, a court ruled
on Friday, throwing out an appeal by her lawyers in a case that has badly
damaged the image of the royal family. The 50-year-old sister of King Felipe is
one of 18 people on trial following a six-year investigation into the Noos
Foundation, a charity run by her husband Iñaki Urdangarin...’. From Reuters.
Well, anyone can
make a misstatement on air but Minister of Development Ana Pastor just pulled a
doozy (here
on the RNE national radio as
reported in El Español): ‘It’s
impossible being in politics and to remain honest’. She later corrected herself
in a Twitter message: ‘I meant to say, it’s impossible being in politics and to
not remain honest’.
But, let’s hear it
for the PSOE. The Anticorruption Prosecution has asked judge Álvaro Martín to
question the two ex-presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, together
with the ex-councillors José Antonio Viera, Carmen Martínez Aguayo, Antonio
Ávila and Gaspar Zarrías (all of whom have now lost their parliamentary
immunity) as part of the ERE scandal in Andalucía. Ideal has the
report.
Well, anyone can
make a misstatement on air but Minister of Development Ana Pastor just pulled a
doozy (here
on the RNE national radio as
reported in El Español): ‘It’s
impossible being in politics and to remain honest’. She later corrected herself
in a Twitter message: ‘I meant to say, it’s impossible being in politics and to
not remain honest’.
The Acuamed
scandal: ‘The “implacable” fight against corruption’ discussed in detail here.
…...
Catalonia:
The Danish multinational Nilfisk is moving its Spanish head-office from
Mataró in Barcelona to Madrid for what the company describes as ‘minimising the
effects that any political eventuality might have on our employees and
business’. ABC had the story here.
…...
Courts
In the final two
weeks of December, a massive 499 fires were declared in Cantabria. To date,
there have been four judicial sentences.
Story at El Diario.
The ex-mayoress of
Jeréz de la Frontera, Pilar Sánchez (PSOE), began
her four and a half year sentence on Sunday in an all-women’s prison in
Seville. She was convicted for her part in the ‘Caso PTA’.
…...
Essay:
Warning – beware
of boiler room financial magicians. The CNMV warns of forty unregistered
financial houses which offer investment services without proper
authorization. It seems if one cannot
get a return from the bank, then the prospect of juicy interest from investment
can be appealing. An article
in El Diario offers this
advice: ‘...A few tips to avoid
falling prey to the boiler rooms. The first one, go to the CNMV records to see
if the company in question is authorized to operate. In addition, an investor should
suspect of being in the presence of a boiler room if these assumptions are
true:
1. They offer much
higher returns than those offered on the market. It is what is called
"playing with customer avarice."
2. Contrary to the
dictates of the law, this is a service that is offered, but not required. They
are usually phone-calls made from "call centres".
3. These calls always
offer small capital investment and very high profits but neglect to say that
those supposed returns come with high risk, with very leveraged products, where
the customer can lose all his money.
4. They charge
very high commissions, which can be as much as 20%.
5. They use very
aggressive sales tactics, pressurising the client to make a quick decision.
6. They always
deny any type of information required by the potential customer related to
their address, contract info and so on.
... ...
The Housing Sector
by Andrew Brociner
Last year, we
spent several issues looking at the housing market and found that there was no
price increase taking place. We examined several factors which explain the lack
of price movement. For instance, we saw that while there is a lack of demand
compared to the boom period, for different reasons, such as the decrease in
population and the lack of new households set up, there is also too great a
supply, as there still remains a huge stock of unsold houses built. It is
worthwhile to see where we stand so far this year.
If we look at the
house price index from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistíca (INE), we find
that it is still very low, but turning upwards, albeit slightly.
 |
It is clear that
given where this index was during the boom, it has lost a tremendous amount of
ground, but at least appears to have bottomed out during 2014 and the beginning
of 2015 and has, since the 2nd quarter of 2015, started to increase
a little.
We could take a
look at the annual rate of change of each quarter to assess how this increase
is proceeding.
 |
It is remarkable
that from the beginning of 2008 until the beginning of 2014, the annual change
in this price index was consistently negative: that is many years of constantly
falling prices. After that, it has spent over a year consolidating.
The data we have
so far for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2015 suggest a
small incremental increase, of 4% for the 2nd quarter and 4,5% for
the 3rd quarter of 2015. But we do need to wait for more data to see
if this increase is being sustained at all. Next week we will continue
examining this finding.
…...
Brexit:
So, what’s the
plan? ‘EU eurosceptics, europhiles & europhobes and what do the Leavers
have as an alternative that is better than the EU??’. An
essay at Say Yes to Europe.
…...
Various:
From the northern Costa Blanca – La Marina Alta – we read that there has
been a sharp drop in the number of foreigners living there, or at least, being
registered on the padrón. In the last five years, says
La Marina Plaza, one third of all foreigners have left. Calpe for
example falls from 18,873 foreigners in 2010 to a current 10,231. Jávea from
17,414 to just 12,242. A report from (anon.)
highlights one possible reason for the departure (or de-registration at least) of foreigners, saying in part: ‘It’s
hard to assess the effect of the Modelo 720 asset declaration exercise,
but there is no doubt it is a consideration, maybe not so much for people never
coming to Spain, even when they have properties, but for restricting their time
here to less than 182 days, at least on an any recorded basis. Either way, packing
up or leaving, or shortening stays here has to have a serious economic impact,
which sillies like (the tax minister) Cristóbal Montoro refuse to recognize’.
A comical
Twitter based on a true incident.
‘The Minister of Justice has recently been in Guatemala to give a talk on how
to avoid corruption. They are still falling about laughing’. The comment comes
from Magistrate Joaquín Bosch.
‘Sad news in Spain
– the first arrest in Ávila for using photovoltaic plates for home-use’. The
story is dated 10 October 2015 and appears
in Energias Libres.
From the alarming
sounding CGT-LKN Bizkaia comes this intriguing headline:
‘Information no longer exists. It has been substituted by propaganda.
Journalism has made way for script-writing’. Plenty of examples follow... (which is why you need BoT!)
It appears that
those wanting a ticket for the Caminito del Rey, the exciting cliff-hanging
walk near Antequera in Málaga, can now no longer obtain one from the Diputación, which claims to have ‘sold
out’. Now, you go to an appropriate restaurant, have a jolly lunch, and take
your ticket, all for an appropriate charge.
Malagaldía is incensed, here.
(For example).
Following after a
couple of earthquakes in the Mediterranean off the coast of Granada, geologists
warn
that, statistically, a ‘big one’ is coming. The last major earthquake in Spain
was on Christmas Day 1884 in Arenas del
Rey (Granada), with some 900 people perishing.
Lijar is a tiny and evidently somewhat truculent pueblo in the interior of Almería. It is best known for having
declared war on France, the whole of France, in 1883 and reluctantly signing a
peace treaty with the Gallic Nation a century later in 1983. Wiki has the
story.
…...
Letters:
Dear Lenox, This
is late but refers to Rita Barbera's lack of immunity! (BoT 145). My wife is Spanish & her father, now dead, was an MP
in Madrid & a senior member of the Socialist Party. The aforados are not immune from the laws of
Spain, we believe. Rita (a Senator in the Madrid Parliament & thus an aforada) & the thousands of aforados have the right to ask to be
tried by a higher court--the Supreme Court--if a judge in a lower court
accumulates evidence which implicates the aforado.
Thus there will be no move on Rita until the judge in the Rus & others case
has accumulated all the evidence & it is then shown to a judge from the
Supreme Court.
The wheels of
justice turn very slowly in Spain & perhaps more slowly still for indicted aforados because of the Supreme Court.
Thus some aforados may avoid a trial
because of statute-barred--time considerations. But that is luck not, we
suggest, from immunity.
Un saludo, Iain
…...
Finally:
2016 Spain’s Eurovision contender is Barei with ‘Say Yay!’ Barei writes and
sings in English (which has upset purists). Listen on YouTube here.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario